In the past, the outcome of elections was determined by the state of the economy, but Joe Biden does not get the credit he deserves. Instead, the conflict in Gaza is roiling American politics and being exploited to no end by Donald Trump.
Come on then. What is your favorite choice aphorism? “Oppositions do not win elections, governments lose”? Or maybe “the only polls that matter are the ones conducted on election day”? If you’re looking at the US, your favorite quote is “Stupid, because of the economy” by James Carville, who earned the wonderful nickname of “Angry Cajun” due to his Louisiana roots. .
This quote, which Carville said about Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential race, became a reality in the subsequent elections. This is basic and clear advice that all elections depend on the public’s sense of economic well-being. Answer to the question: Am I currently in better shape than I was 4 years ago?
But what if this is no longer true for 2024? Looking at Biden’s poll numbers, it seems he is not getting any credit for the economic upswing that seems to be taking place in the United States. Employment figures are rising nicely, inflation is falling. There is no longer talk of recession, but of a soft landing of the US economy.
What is currently shaking up American politics is what is happening in the Middle East and Ukraine. This is partly to do with the age-old debate about the US policy of isolationism: “America first” versus global leadership; Burning bridges against the guardianship of democracy and the rules-based international order. But it’s also about how small waves from the shores of the Gaza Strip in the Eastern Mediterranean are now washing up on U.S. shores.
Look at the political map of the USA. One of the most important swing states is Michigan. Trump won in 2016; In 2020, Biden won by 160 thousand votes. But Michigan has one of the highest Muslim populations in the United States, at nearly a quarter million. They voted overwhelmingly for Biden in both those elections, especially after Trump proposed banning all Muslims from entering the United States in 2016. However, there is great anger at Biden embracing Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu so closely.
I spent some time with Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan last week. He is a good friend of Joe Biden and is right behind his re-election bid in 2024. But he’s worried. The mood is changing in this Michigan high-rise city, and Duggan believes the White House needs to pay much more attention to the plight of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip if it is to have a chance of keeping the state in next year’s election.
Traditionally, Democrats are the most pro-Israel party. However, this situation is changing dramatically. A Gallup poll conducted 6 months before Hamas’ October 7 massacre revealed that Democrats were more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israelis for the first time.
Then look at the wave of demonstrations sweeping college campuses across the United States. Not only were many of them pro-Palestinian, but there was also a rapid increase in ugly anti-Semitic incidents. Who will these young people vote for next year when Biden seems to represent an old-fashioned Zionism?
Democrats are right to be concerned. And then there is Ukraine. Long before Russia invaded, Americans were tired of “endless wars.” Although US personnel do not participate in the conflict, billions of taxpayer dollars are being gobbled up supporting a counteroffensive that appears to have stalled. Republicans’ new leadership in the House of Representatives says “enough.” They don’t want to give Ukraine another penny, and Biden can’t fund Kiev’s war effort from his small coffers at the White House. The money must be approved by the House of Representatives.
All of this is played like a Stradivarius by that great violinist Donald Trump. This becomes a campaign of truths. And for Donald Trump, things that go against the facts are controversial and tend to be controversial.
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