Is war with Russia imminent in the Baltic Sea?
The war, which started with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, led Sweden and Finland, which had been neutral for 200 years, to join NATO. But how did this process come about? Why is the city of Kaliningrad important? The latest situation in the Baltic Sea.
While the military operation, which started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been going on for weeks, the eyes of the world have been fixed on the north of Europe this time. Finland and Sweden have announced that they want to become NATO members officially due to security concerns after Russia’s invasion attempt on Ukraine. The fact that the two countries take steps to join the union means the end of decades of “neutrality” of the Baltic countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, regarding Finland and Sweden’s decision to become members of NATO, said, “We have no problems with these countries, their membership in the Alliance will not pose a threat to us, but it will cause a counter-reaction.”
After the discussions in the Finnish and Swedish Parliaments, the two countries are expected to apply for NATO membership by tomorrow at the latest. Well, how did this process come about? Does the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO trigger the wick of the 3rd World War, as Russia claims? What will happen next? Here are the new geopolitical balances in the Baltics in 10 questions…
How were the relations between Finland – Sweden – Russia in history?
The history of the strategic balance policy between Finland, Sweden and Russia goes back to the Second World War. Before and after the Second World War, the alliance of the Finnish far right, which was against the Soviet Union, with Nazi Germany between 1941-44 was met with the reaction of Western states, especially Britain.
After the war, the Soviet Union seized 10 percent of Finland’s territory. However, despite this, Finland, which remained an independent state at the end of the war, established close relations with Russia within the framework of permanent security policies from this date on.
Finland, in particular, by maintaining its neutrality during the “Cold War” era, had eliminated the threat from Russia. Finland, which joined the EU in 1995 and the Eurozone in 1999, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union; Although it approached the EU politically and economically, it had preferred to stay out of NATO militarily until today.
In opinion polls conducted up to 2020, only 20 percent of Finns wanted to join NATO. Most people in the country thought that the maintenance of peace consisted in establishing friendly relations with Russia and maintaining economic relations. After the invasion of Ukraine, the country made a “U” turn. In recent polls, 76 percent of Finnish people suggested that they should join NATO.
İSVEÇ 200 YILLIK TARAFSIZLIK POLİTİKASINI RAFA KALDIRDI
İsveç ise başından itibaren hem NATO’ya hem de Sovyetler Birliğine karşı tarafsızlığını korumayı bildi. Bu sayede hem Batıya hem de Doğuya karşı eleştirilerini dünya kamuoyunda en sesli şekilde dile getirebiliyordu.
Ancak, soğuk savaşın en yakıcı döneminde Sovyetler birliği İsveç ve ABD’nin gizli anlaşmalarla denizaltı ihaleleri ve diplomatik görüşmeler yaptığını iddia etse de bunlar kanıtlanamamıştı. İsveç 200 yıllık tarafsızlık politikasını rafa kaldırarak, Finlandiya’nın izlediği politik hattı benimsedi ve NATO üyesi olmayı kabul etti.
Why do Sweden and Finland want to join NATO?
Well, but are there only security concerns at the root of Sweden and Finland’s desire to join NATO? The possibility of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine by challenging the whole world and expanding its front was met with concern in the countries of the region. This has alarmed the two Baltic states that have been disconnected for decades.
In addition, the violation of Swedish airspace by Russian military aircraft in recent years and the reflection of the dominance of Russian submarines in the archipelago region in the North Sea to intelligence reports made Finland and Sweden very uneasy.
The reshaping of the new geopolitical balance that emerged after the Ukrainian war and the “change of the entire security landscape of Europe” were the indication that the balances in the Scandinavian region were also “dramatically shaped”.
For this reason, Finland and Sweden have taken their place in the new geopolitical balance by avoiding being in the “unpredictable” picture and adopting a new security policy.
Katherine Kjellström Elgin, an expert at the US-based think tank Center for Strategy and Budgetary Evaluations (CSBA), said, “This is a very historical step. It will lead to fundamental changes in the European alliance structure” and emphasized the importance of participation.
Will NATO accept Finland and Swereh for the membership?
Although both countries gave importance to maintaining their military neutrality when they joined the EU in 1995, they have been regularly participating in NATO military exercises for many years. The two countries, which act jointly with NATO in military and technological developments and R&D studies, also benefit heavily from NATO in the field of intelligence.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, on the situation that the two countries make an official application to NATO, said, “The membership of NATO will increase our common security, show that NATO’s doors are open and aggression does not benefit.” Stating that the accession process will be fast, Stoltenberg added that the official vote may take several months.
How does the NATO accession process work?
According to NATO officials, the two countries’ formal application for membership could be completed within a few weeks.
The part that will take the most time in the admission of countries to the union may take place during the parliamentary approval of the accession protocols of the 30 members of the alliance. NATO officials say this process could take months. Exactly how long it will take cannot be predicted. In addition, the consent of all member states is required for participation.
The approval process took 1 year for the last member North Macedonia to join the union.
How are these developments evaluated by Russia?
Although Russia has reiterated at every opportunity that it does not see Finland and Sweden as a military target, it has warned of “serious military and political consequences” if they join NATO.
Pointing out that especially nuclear warhead cruise missiles will return to the Baltic countries and that they will not hesitate to retaliate against the two countries in order to restore the military balance, the Kremlin administration underlines that NATO should abandon its strategy of advancement at every opportunity.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who made statements on the positive results of joining NATO in the sessions of the Finnish and Swedish Parliaments yesterday, stated that this step was a “big mistake” and would have wide-ranging consequences.
“This situation, of course, radically changes the conditions,” said Ryabkov. “However, it is clear to us that the security of Sweden and Finland cannot be strengthened as a result of this decision. The two countries should not fall into such illusions. The level of military tension will increase even more.”
Can Russia launch a military operation against these two countries? Russia is angry about Finland joining NATO, but it seems unlikely that it can do much in the military field. The most important reason for this is that the Western wing of the Russian army suffered serious losses in terms of both people and equipment in heavy conflicts in Ukraine.
Initiating a military operation against Sweden and Finland would mean a further expansion of the war front, which could lead to the massive destruction of Russia’s military capabilities.
Retired from the Finnish army, Major General Pekka Toveri, in his assessment of Russia’s possible military operations, stated that Russia may launch a cyber-attack on infrastructure channels or try to start a hybrid war in order to influence the Finnish public and create panic.
Will the two Baltic states change the fate of the Ukraine war?
The coming months will be very critical for Russia, which will have to determine a new strategy after Finland and Sweden. So much so that the inclusion of the two countries in NATO, the birth of a new 1300-kilometer border line, the NATO weapons in St. Petersburg, and the emergence of a force that directly threatens the Russian navy with its naval power.
Therefore, increasing the number of equipment and soldiers that Russia will need to protect a new 1300-kilometer border line will further increase the economic pressure on the Kremlin administration.
Therefore, before Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia may try to perpetuate its concrete gains on the Ukrainian front. The Kremlin administration can continue the hybrid war by ending the active hot war in Ukraine due to the new 1300 kilometer border.
Also, during the two countries’ NATO accession period, Russia will want to advance further in eastern Ukraine by adopting a more aggressive military strategy.
Therefore, the inclusion of the two countries in NATO will determine Russia’s steps on the ground. In short, the two countries will cause a complete reshuffle of their cards in Ukraine.
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