What happened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing occupation and interrupted conflicts, the humanitarian corridors created; images of people forced to leave their places at train stations; “There will be no more hot conflicts in the 21st century; when we see that the rhetoric “countries are economically occupying each other” is disabled… All of these create very heavy traumas on us; It will continue to create.
The most important point for now is that this occupation ends as soon as possible and that the tragedy is ended and people return to their countries and places where they live urgently.
In a news report last week, he stated that the number of people who left Ukraine reached 1.2 million. 500 thousand of them are children! It is feared that this number will soon reach 2.5 million. We are talking about a country with a population of approximately 44 million.
I will not waste your time by writing about the occupation that started on February 24 and what happened after it here. You probably all know more about this than I do, from many different sources. The real issue is what happens next…
Russia and Ukraine… Since these 2 countries are the main producers or sources of many raw materials and products; After the occupation, very serious price increases and supply problems began to suffer. The fact that some products can no longer be supplied or the embargoes placed by western countries and especially the USA continue to escalate concerns about the future.
Wheat, oil, oil, natural gas… It is frightening to even think about the problems that people and countries will face as a result of supply problems in this group, which are basic necessities, or not being exported.
The cost implications that will follow from these increases will cause us to understand the real size of the business harder. So, what kind of an economic future awaits the world when there is such a big embargo and sanction decision, and there is a need for raw materials produced and extracted in Russia?
Russia; As a result, it will try to find ways to sell its raw materials in world markets in one way or another. While the rapidly increasing oil and natural gas prices contribute positively to the budgets of the producing countries, they also create huge deficits in the budgets of the countries that have to import these products.
Many of the multinational financial institutions and trademarks that have been doing business in the Russian market for years stopped their operations in this country one by one. However, it is observed that some European institutions have not yet complied with these embargo decisions. For example, Deutsche Bank’s announcement that it is not feasible to terminate its operations in Russia. Therefore, it can be said that there are conflicts between the USA and some EU countries, and that these examples will increase in the coming period.
While monetary and fiscal policy instruments will begin to be used in the fight against inflation, which is the number 1 problem of the world, we will see how and for how long turbulence will be experienced in Turkey, which deviates from practices outside the usual rules.
Turkey’s deepening of its close commercial and political relations with Russia, such as the purchase of arms, was met with harsh criticism and even sanctions from NATO and the USA. While the concerns that this could be carried over to the extent of trade sanctions increased, Biden’s statement that the inflation in his country was due to “foreign outbreaks”, that is, due to Putin, gave us some relief. In other words, if Biden “fixes” Putin, then the world will be freed from inflation and all the calamities it causes!
Then it remains to find ways to get rid of Putin at full speed! With the embargo on seafood and alcoholic beverages included in the new and serial sanctions package announced by Biden himself, the final fatal blow was probably dealt economically!
We are just beginning to experience the effects of many repriced products and raw materials on the economies and the medium and long-term effects of the changing political geography of the world. It does not seem possible to predict the extent of this occupation and how far it will extend before the end of the occupation.
People are increasingly worried about the future. While the effects of the pandemic have not been erased yet, all these experiences are quite heavy for people who hope to make a new start. Probably no one wished this much for 2022, but the footsteps of a war on the horizon were heard late last year…
Yes, we need morale, new beginnings right now. Despite everything, we are still not at a point where we need to be too pessimistic… We are already rolling in enough pessimism, but we still have room to maneuver. I hope we can manage these last maneuvering opportunities without missing them.
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