The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, is expected to cut its main interest rates at a meeting in Washington on Wednesday. If it does, the aim will be to stimulate the US economy and get inflation closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. But it will have ramifications far beyond US shores.
Fed policy and the world
There are two general answers. One is that the US economy’s performance is important for the rest of us. If the Fed gets it wrong the US could end up underperforming, which would be bad news for many other countries.
The second point is that Fed policy can have an impact through financial markets by affecting exchange rates, interest rates and international flows of investment money.
So what is the impact of the US economy?
For most countries on the planet, the US is an important export market – for many, the largest of all. If the US has a recession, it will buy less stuff from abroad than it would have if growth had been maintained. Its immediate neighbours, Canada and Mexico, are particularly exposed. For both, more than three-quarters of their exports go to the US.
The UK is also at some risk from economic storms in the US, although not to the extent of those two. The US is the largest single country export destination for the UK – though it is much smaller than the EU taken as a whole. The US accounts for about 13% of UK exports.
And what is the Fed’s role in this?
The Federal Reserve has a mandate from the US Congress to promote maximum employment and stable prices. It raises interest rates if inflation is too high, or it thinks it is heading that way. It cuts rates if it thinks there is a danger of economic growth slowing too much or inflation being too low.
Rate cuts make it more attractive for business to borrow to invest and households to borrow to spend. The Fed is perhaps the key player in trying to prevent a recession and promoting a recovery if there is a downturn.
The Fed has started reducing interest rates in an attempt to maintain solid economic growth in the US. Growth has slowed, though there does not appear to be an imminent danger of the economy actually contracting. That said, there have been some warning signs in the financial markets that often do signal a recession is not that far away. If it can succeed in achieving that, it will reduce the risks of the rest of the world having a period of weak economic performance.
What is the impact on currency markets?
Cuts in interest rates in any country tend to make its currency lose value against others. That is because lower interest rates mean there is less money to be made by investing in assets that yield interest, such as government bonds or debt.
If investors are less keen to buy, for example US government bonds, they have less demand for the currency needed to buy them. So the currency concerned, the dollar in this case, tends to lose value. That in turn will make other countries less competitive against goods that are priced in US dollars. But it also helps slow inflation by making dollar-priced goods cheaper in other countries’ currencies.
What about international investment?
When an economy as large as the US changes its interest rates, it is possible for the movement of investment funds to be disruptive. There was an episode in 2013 when the Fed started to consider reducing its quantitative easing programme, which involved creating new money to buy financial assets such as government bonds. It was a move which was in some ways akin to raising interest rates.
The plan was to “taper” its quantitative easing, and the result for emerging economies such as India and Indonesia came to be known as the “taper tantrum”. That led to large amounts of money leaving emerging markets, and there were concerns at the time that it might even lead to a new financial crisis in those countries. In the event, that did not happen.
This time, because interest rates are likely to be cut, it is more likely that money will go into emerging economies. That can sometimes lead to financial instability (or unsustainable bubbles). That is not an immediate concern now, but it is a reason why countries need to keep a careful eye on what happens in the US.
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