Trends in the Ages of Tennis Players

The mean age of all the women was under 19 in 1960 and was below 20 in four years during the 1960s. The mean was below 21 in 11 of 14 years prior to 1974; in contrast, the mean fell below 22 in only one of 17 years beginning in 1977. And the mean reached 23 in 1987, and has been at or above that level in three of the past six years. The five-year averages also show an increase from just under 20 during the early ’60s to nearly 21 in the late ’60s and early ’70s, to 22 in the late ’70s and early ’80s, and to 23 in the late ’80s and early ’90s.
Thus over time there has been an increase in the mean age of all nationally ranked players, with no sign of decline in recent years; indeed the mean age for 1992, of 23.3, was above those for all of the previous 32 years. It is possible, however, that the changes described by the observers quoted earlier did not affect all players, but rather applied to only the top players.
By the end of the period the mean ages of both the top 10 and top 20 were as high as they had ever been previously. During the period of rising overall mean ages in the ’70s the mean ages of the top 10 and 20 were consistently greater than those of all ranked players. During the early ’80s, however, this relation was reversed, as the means of both the top 10 and 20 fell below those of all players. In recent years, the mean ages of the top players have generally been similar to those of the others.
There are several interesting features of these series. The increase in average ages during the 1970s was almost certainly a result of the arrival of professional tennis for women. Prior to 1970, women’s tennis was an amateur sport; not only did players not win money, but they were not allowed to earn money for endorsements or any other activities related to tennis. The first professional women’s tournament was held in 1970, and the total prize money available for women grew rapidly during the ’70s and ’80s: from a total of $250,000 in 1971, prize money on the women’s tour increased to $7.2 million in 1980, and $23 million in 1990. During the initial phase of the professional era Billie Jean King, who first organized the women’s pro tour, noted that “more women are making tennis their lifelong careers.” The moderate amounts of prize money available in the early years meant that the economic incentives for prolonged competition were initially concentrated among the best players, and the mean ages of the top players rose more rapidly during the early ’70s than did those of lower ranked players. As total prize money on the women’s tour continued to increase, however, the economic incentives became more widespread and the mean age of all ranked players also rose.
But ages did not simply continue to rise throughout the remainder of the period analyzed. Although the mean age of all players was not greatly affected, the average ages of the better players declined sharply during the late ’70s and early ’80s. This decline may have been a consequence of the new popularity of tennis during the 1970s. Tennis enjoyed an extraordinary increase in public interest during the early ’70s: it has been estimated that the snumber of Americans who played tennis annually rose from 10 million in 1970 to more than 30 million during 1974-78. The attractiveness of competitive tennis to young girls at this time was also increased by the success of Chris Evert, who reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open in 1971 at the age of 16. The most talented of the children who began playing tennis during the early and mid-’70s began to enter adult women’s competition in their teen ages during the late ’70s and early ’80s and the larger numbers of players in this cohort meant that there would be more of these talented players than in earlier times. This early entry into adult competition of the most promising players could account for the drop in the mean ages of the top players, while the average age of all competitive players changed much less.
The increase in the mean ages of the top players during the past 10 years may in turn have been a result of a subsequent decline in the popularity of tennis during the 1980s. The tennis boom of the ’70s gave way to a bust, as the estimated number of Americans who played tennis fell to 13 million in 1985. The smaller numbers of children attracted to the sport during the 1980s may account for a reduction in the rate of entry of excellent young players into women’s tennis in recent years, and the consequent increasing mean age of the best American players.
The mean ages examined here clearly indicate that competitive American women players in general are typically older today than during the amateur era, and that today’s players are also older on average than they were a decade ago. And Table 2 demonstrates that these statements apply even more strongly to the best players. Yet these aggregate data do not reveal some interesting facts about players’ careers. At what age do women typically enter adult competition? When do women reach their peak in competitive tennis, and how long do they remain there? And when do women typically retire from world-class competition? The next section of this paper will use the USTA rankings to provide evidence that bears on these questions.


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